Saturday, March 31, 2012

Stupid Foreigners Buying Our IOUs! Oops, Strike That

WSJ: ... Last year the Fed purchased a stunning 61% of the total net Treasury issuance, up from negligible amounts prior to the 2008 financial crisis. This not only creates the false appearance of limitless demand for U.S. debt but also blunts any sense of urgency to reduce supersized budget deficits.
...
The Fed is in effect subsidizing U.S. government spending and borrowing via expansion of its balance sheet and massive purchases of Treasury bonds. This keeps Treasury interest rates abnormally low, camouflaging the true size of the budget deficit. Similarly, the Fed is providing preferential credit to the U.S. government and covering a rapidly widening gap between Treasury's need to borrow and a more limited willingness among market participants to supply Treasury with credit.
...
The failure by officials to normalize conditions in the U.S. Treasury market and curtail ballooning deficits puts the U.S. economy and markets at risk for a sharp correction.


C'mon China, buy our debt! Please!



Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304450004577279754275393064.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Source: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt
Source: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/shlprelim.html
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/china-dumps-100-billion-usts-december-revised-tic-data-uk-now-russias-shadow-buyer

Friday, March 30, 2012

We Will Never Learn...

Bad news: Real (inflation-adjusted) personal income is barely growing (at least it's no longer receding as it was during the recent recession).


Bad news: Consumer debt is growing again.


Bad news: People are savings less after a short period of hope (one month, Dec. 2011).


Source: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/PSAVERT.txt
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/american-spending-goes-overdrive-savings-plunge-2008-levels
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-chart-decade

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

The Next Big Thing... Student Loan Debt Crisis

These days, forty is the new thirty.

College degrees today were yesterday's high school diplomas. And the numbers show it. At least the cost side.

Note to student loan holders: Hurry up and pay off your loans with the abundance of jobs available (see the government's unemployment data for Jan. and Feb., they're great!) and buy some houses in the stabilized housing market (unless you call a triple-dip in national prices an unstable market) with record low interest rates (market-driven, not government manipulated, of course).

According the the NY Fed:
- The outstanding student loan balance now stands at about $870 billion, surpassing the total credit card balance ($693 billion) and the total auto loan balance ($730 billion).
- The average outstanding student loan balance per borrower is $23,300.
- The median balance of $12,800 is roughly half the average level, which indicates that a small fraction of people have balances significantly higher than the median.
- Of the 37 million borrowers who have outstanding student loan balances as of third-quarter 2011, 14.4 percent, or about 5.4 million borrowers, have at least one past due student loan account. Together, these past due balances sum to $85 billion, or roughly 10 percent of the total outstanding student loan balance.
- Adjusting for loans in deferral and forbearance periods we find that 27 percent of the borrowers have past due balances, while the adjusted proportion of outstanding student loan balances that is delinquent is 21 percent—much higher than the unadjusted rates of 14.4 percent and 10 percent, respectively.

Damnit! Bad news, according to the WSJ (March 22, 2012): Total student debt outstanding appears to have surpassed $1 trillion late last year, said officials at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, a federal agency created in the wake of the financial crisis. That would be roughly 16% higher than an estimate earlier this year by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.





Raise the Roof (or Debt Ceiling), Again?

Looks like Republicans' plans worked. Last month they agreed to extend the payroll-tax reduction for 2012 without demanding spending cuts. Why you ask? So that the US will hit the debt ceiling -- you remember that pesky debate from last summer don't you? -- right before election time.


Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/us-debt-ceiling-d-day-september-14-2012
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gop-finally-discovers-obamas-achilles-heel-just-let-him-do-what-he-does-and-encourage-it
Source: http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/07/11/debt-ceiling-debate-the-mother-of-all-timelines/
Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204795304577221340036336950.html

Snip Snip Snip...

This video shows what it would take to fill the budget deficit from 2011.

Here's why the government will continue to either: (1) sell bonds to foreigners or in the case of no foreigners wanting to buy our bonds, (2) have the Fed "buy" bonds from the Treasury (i.e. print money).


Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/how-fund-government-year
Source: http://www.learnliberty.org/

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

History 101: Reserve Currencies Don't Last Forever

Think the US Dollar was the world's reserve currency since its formation and will continue forever into the future?

Think again.


On MF Global and Implications for Investors

Hint: Bad news if you think financial regulators are on the side of investors.

Don't care about MF Global investors (farmers, grain operators, hedge funds)?

Don't worry. When the time comes, customers of brokerages managing 401k, individual stock brokerage accounts, and IRAs can rest assured that they will be treated similarly.


Thursday, March 22, 2012

Definitive Proof That We're In Deep Deep Trouble

Here's proof that the US is in deep deep trouble. Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44C8dTcPSjI&feature=player_embedded

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Totally Worth It! At Least Until the Chickens Come Home to Roost

All we've done is delay the problem, which will be even bigger the next time it comes around.




Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-20/chart-attack-cost-of-avoiding-armageddon.html
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/presenting-high-cost-armageddon-avoidance

Gas Prices are so High, Must be Demand in the US (or Not)

Don't look now, but premium gas just broke $4 per gallon. Why should you care? Because unlike you, most of us are impacted by higher gas bills. We drive SUVs, minivans, trucks, and sports cars. We live far from our jobs (if we're employed) and public transportation is not an option, yet. Unfortunately, money going to $60+ gas bills means less spending on food, entertainment, and other garbage we buy. Oil exporting countries make money, companies that sell us all the other stuff lose money.


When you look at demand (via gasoline retail deliveries), you can see that it's not demand that causing high gas prices:

 

Well then, what could it be? Maybe two bears have an explanation:


Source: http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Gasoline-Update.php
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bears-explain-price-gas-special-gop-primary-edition
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-why-gasoline-consumption-tanking

The Legacy Of The Baby Boomers

From Zero Hedge:

While it is difficult to properly attribute blame for the collapse of the US economy, which commenced in the early 1980s, on either the Fed's policy of easy money starting with Alan Greenspan, or the resultant self-indulgent lifestyle of the maturing baby boomers, one thing is certain: the paradigm downturn of the United States began in the early 1980s.

The 4 simple charts below don't lie: the US economy, as represented by its Balance of Payments, the profligacy of the US consumer, the massive expansion of consumer leverage, and the collapse in US manufacturing jobs, and specifically its current near-terminal state, is as much as legacy of the baby boom generation's actions (and lack thereof), as of everything else that has already been mulled over and scapegoated an infinite number of times in both the mainstream and fringe media.



Monday, March 19, 2012

Inflation on Stuff Since 2000

Bad news for you if you drive, pay tuition, cook, wash your clothes, use lights, shower in heated water, use air conditioning, use heaters, have medical expenses, fly on airplanes, catch the train, eat food, drink drinks, or live in housing.


Don't worry, buy stocks. From 2000 to today, the Dow Jones Industrial Avg. is up 15%; Nasdaq is down 24%; S&P 500 is down 4%. Oh wait, that wouldn't have saved you...

Source: http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Gasoline-Update.php

Kyle Bass on Europe, Japan, the US, and Gold

Kyle Bass speaking at AmeriCatalyst 2011 in Nov. 2011.

Kyle Bass was briefly mentioned in Michael Lewis's The Big Short and covered in more detail in Boomerang. He made a ton of money shorting the housing market in 2008.

19 min. 30 sec.: Total Credit Market Debt to GDP >300%. First time in world history that we're here.
27 min. 55 sec.: Housing market, shadow inventory, government is 90% of the market.
34 min. 25 sec.: Japan's pending doom.
41 min. 55 sec.: Why he recommended taking delivery on physical gold at U of Texas.
42 min. 30 sec.: Gold open interest (paper ownership) vs. actual gold available for delivery (or $80B vs. $2.7B). What happens if 4% of the $80B ask for delivery? Price skyrockets.
55 min. 30 sec.: Sovereign balances. Who's next?

The Optics of Inflation

Here's a chart of US Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) - excludes energy and food - going back to 1870.  Notice the relatively recent phenomenon of only positive inflation (erosion of the purchasing power of the dollar):


Here's the Core and Headline (includes energy and food) beginning 2007:


Cumulative prices indexed to 100 (1982):


The government likes to change the way it calculates inflation. CPI calculations were changed in the '80s and '90s. Here's what the core CPI looks like without the '80s and '90s changes:


While some changes to the calculation are justifiable, maybe we don't buy tape decks or CRT TVs, it sure doesn't feel like prices only increased 3% since last year.

Source: http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Inflation-Since-1872.php
Source: http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Inflation-X-Ray-View.php
Source: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CPIAUCNS?cid=9

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Kids Should be Kids...

Don't look now, but apparently there is an issue with youth unemployment in one of the two countries that will go through Greece-like shenanigans very shortly, Spain (Portugal is the other one, but no one cares about them).

If you believe that unemployed young people are not a big deal, search for images of riots in Greece. Did you see that grandma throwing Molotov cocktails? Or that middle-aged man with a bat attacking police? Me neither.

What happens when young people lose work, can't find work, have lost hope of making a living, and see their politicians agreeing to more austerity measures that will seal their fate? They go shopping at the mall with their friends! Unless they have no money and are pissed off. Then they riot.


Doesn't look like Greece or Spain have great employment outlooks either:




Sunday, March 11, 2012

Housing, a Decent Asset for Inflation Protection

On average in the US, as long as you bought your house before ~2002, you should be ok in terms of price preservation (if you're lucky, price appreciation) relating to the harm of inflation on your asset value.

Here's a chart of an inflation-adjusted US House Price Index by Case-Shiller from 1890 to 2009. Seems like after accounting for inflation, US housing returned about 50% over 120 years.


Here's a chart going through 2011. Oops. Looks like housing continued its slide and as of Q1 2011, as long as you bought your house before ~2000, you should be ok.


Alright, let me show you a chart that will make you feel better and go back to believing that housing prices rise forever and it's because they really are a great investment and the devaluation of the US dollar has nothing to do with housing prices increasing. As of Q4 2011, you only have to go back to ~2002 to be ok with the price of your house! 92% increase from 1982 to 2011 even with the housing bubble! Great returns! Note: Make sure you don't look at the inflation-adjusted House Price Index, above.

Here's the non-inflation-adjusted Case-Shiller US House Price Index:





Saturday, March 10, 2012

No Way the Gold Market is Manipulated! Right?

Statistics schmatistics on gold...

Go to 7 minutes 27 seconds of the video for the statistical part. I personally prefer to listen to, and believe, our wisely-selected politicians telling me how free markets are prevailing.


Gold, along with currency pairs, opens trading on Sunday and closes on Friday. 

This chart plots the cumulative change in gold for the Intraday (when US markets are open, I believe) and the Overnight (Asian and London).  Anything look suspicious?:


Scatter-plot of the cumulative Intraday and Overnight changes over a decade:


Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmpVurAewpo&feature=youtu.be&hd=1

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

The Fed Manipulating the Market? No Way!

Apparently there are some that believe the US Federal Reserve is manipulating interest rates, both long- and short-term.

Keeping rates low starves savers of capital appreciation. Banks are forced to seek higher returns by lending money to people. Those borrowers are supposed to spend the money and show everyone how wealthy they are with their new cars, boats, and vacations. Maybe some will borrow money to fund a business and hire people. With low rates, people are supposed to buy homes (because most can't afford to pay cash), which in turn stabilizes the housing market and ultimately, drives prices higher!

The only problem is that the Fed is creating massive amounts of money out of thin air (devaluing the dollar) and with weaker dollars, imports cost more. Imports like oil, gas, food, and crap from countries that have manufacturing capabilities that the US once had decades ago. With so much money-printing, what do we have? A housing market that might be stabilizing (I argue that it's not), unemployment >8% (it's higher when you remove all the adjustments the BLS makes), and spiking energy and food costs.

Don't forget, your savings accounts might still show the same dollar amount, but trust me, it buys less. Soon, it will be able to buy much less.

Wait a minute, you mean these aren't market-determined rates?:


Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/jim-grant-must-watch-capitalism-alternative-what-we-have-now
Source: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000077329

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Bright Future Ahead (or Not): Peak Spending and US Demographic Trends


Spending Wave, according to Wikipedia:

In the economics of demography, the term spending wave refers to the economic effect of departure of children from the home. When a society experiences a high level of such family change then an economic decline follows from reduced spending overall.

For example, in U.S. contemporary economics, Harry Dent, a University of South Carolina and Harvard Business School graduate and Fortune 100 consultant, has popularized the baby-boomer spending wave theory. According to Dent, the stock-market decline of 2008 was a result of baby boomers aging past their peak spending years. This prediction was based on the observation that consumer spending peaks near age 50. In 2002 Dan Arnold echoed this theory in his book The Great Bust Ahead, with the big spenders being 45-54 year olds, and their numbers peaking in 2011-2012.

Some experts expect the worst consumer recession, since 1980, to occur when aging boomers start retiring, adding to rising unemployment, decline in house values, and declining stock prices. However other experts have suggested that immigration to the US and the rise of emerging economies will offset the baby boomer demographic impact. Still other experts have postulated, that due to the 2008 major stock market decline and home equity crash, that many baby boomers will have lost so much equity that they will retire at a later age than was previously planned.

Japan's Nikkei Average index peaked on 29 December 1989. Japan's birth rate appears to have peaked in around 1930-1940 when about 36.7% of the population was under 14 years of age (it has dropped to 13.5% in 2007). Those aged 15-64 peaked in about 1990-1995. This would appear to confirm the spending wave theory presuming a spending peak at around 50 years of age.

Canned Goods: Whatever you believe, peak spending is yesterday/today/next year, immigration will save us, or boomers working longer will keep spending levels up, just remember, consumer expenditures account for about 70% of US GDP (i.e. reduction in spending = big negative impact on GDP = contracting economy = less earnings for businesses = less jobs = less wealth = less spending = negative impact on GDP...).

US Birth Rates:

US Population by Age Group (1998 vs. 2009). As the pig moves through the python, it spells bad news for people who believe that peak spending is in the 45 to 54 age group.


2009 vs. 1998 percentage change by age group. Guess what age group will have the greatest change in 2020 (only 8 years away).



See the pig move through the python(click on image to see the gif):


If 45 to 54 is the peak spending group, then I have bad news for you, it peaked in 2010.



Source: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/us-population-distribution-by-age-1950.html
Source: http://www.acf.hhs.gov/programs/cse/pubs/reports/projections/ch04.html
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spending_wave
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baby-boomer

Monday, March 5, 2012

Trust. Your Government Statistics.


Trust is the lubrication that makes it possible for organizations to work. -- Warren Bennis

Lube me up!

From policymic:

CBS News recently reported that the rate of inflation, as calculated by the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER), clocked in at a whopping 8% over the past year. This number is in stark contrast to the relatively modest inflation rate of 3.1% being reported by the government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The AIER calculates what they refer to as an Every Day Price Index (EPI). The EPI only looks at the cost of goods the average household buys every month and factors in only those costs which are subject to price fluctuation. For example, mortgages are typically stable over the course of a year so those numbers are ignored. They wouldn’t change unless a person moves or refinances, so they don’t act as a good measure of inflation from month to month.














Another measure of inflation comes from John Williams’ Shadow Stats. Williams calculates the consumer price index (CPI) using the same model as the government did prior to 1990. Williams also calculates the CPI using the same model as the government did prior to 1980. In each case, the government changed the way it calculated inflation in order to give the appearance of less inflation.

If we calculate the inflation rate the exact same way the government did prior to 1990, the inflation rate is averaging around 6.5%, which is basically double the official rate. However, if we measure inflation the same way the government did back prior to 1980, the inflation rate clocks in at a mind-numbing 11%.




Source: http://www.policymic.com/articles/4952/is-america-hiding-its-true-inflation-rate-and-could-the-u-s-be-as-insolvent-as-greece/category_list
Source: http://www.aier.org/article/7557-epi-reflects-basic-economic-change
Source: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505144_162-57387655/inflation-not-as-low-as-you-think/

Couple Lives In $1.3 Million, 4,900 Square Foot Home For Five Years Without Making A Single Mortgage Payment

Don't worry, this is completely uncommon and out of the ordinary. Times are tough. People need help. Don't worry, taxpayers, like me, are here to help you. Please, take your time, believe in yourself, you are wonderful, you are great, keep it up...

From the Washington Post:


The eviction from their million-dollar home could come at any moment. Keith and Janet Ritter have been bracing for it — and battling against it — almost from the moment they moved into the five-bedroom, 4,900-square-foot manse along the Potomac River in Fort Washington.

In five years, they have never made a mortgage payment, a fact that amazes even the most seasoned veterans of the foreclosure crisis.

The Ritters have kept the sheriff at bay by repeatedly filing for bankruptcy and by exploiting changes in Maryland’s laws designed to help delinquent homeowners avoid foreclosure.

Those efforts to protect homeowners have transformed Maryland’s foreclosure process from one of the country’s shortest to one of the longest. It now takes on average 634 days to complete a foreclosure in Maryland, compared with 132 days in Virginia.

“The market won’t fix itself,” said Anne Norton, Maryland’s deputy commissioner for financial regulations. “By the time it does, how many homeowners will be churned up and spit out by the machine?”

Critics, including economists and lenders, blame the state’s go-slow approach for a growing backlog of foreclosures and a weak-to-nonexistent recovery in home prices. To them, the system puts too much emphasis on helping individual homeowners and not enough on quickly clearing the market of foreclosures so prices can rebound and hard-hit communities can recover. And they say it also creates opportunities for abuse by those determined to drag the process out for as long as possible.

“How is it people can stay in a house for five years without ever making a mortgage payment?” said Thomas A. Lawler, a former senior vice president at Fannie Mae who now runs his own consulting firm in Loudoun County. “That’s a screwed-up process. It’s an example of how the process is broken.”

The Ritters, who bought their house for $1.29 million with almost no money down, are hardly representative of the vast majority of Maryland’s distressed homeowners.

During the boom, they set out to become mini real estate moguls, buying properties and flipping them for a profit. In the process, Keith Ritter, 54, went from being on probation for bankruptcy fraud and making minimum wage to being a successful real estate investor and landlord with a six-figure income. Then, when the housing market tanked five years ago, the couple found themselves facing multiple foreclosures.

The Ritters have tried to negotiate different payment arrangements with their lender to save their posh home near National Harbor, they said, but to no avail.

“It was never our intention to get here and never make a mortgage payment,” Keith Ritter said. “We don’t believe in living for free.”

But he and Janet, a 51-year-old real estate agent, make no apology for using every tactic available to them to stay in their house, including challenging the foreclosure sale in court, requesting mediation and claiming they had a tenant living with them. Their adversaries, they argued, are giant financial institutions with armies of lawyers that are out to make as much money as possible at the expense of homeowners.

“When a bank does all it can to save itself, that’s good business,” Keith said. “When a homeowner does the same thing, he’s called a deadbeat.”

Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/couple-lives-13-million-4900-square-foot-home-five-years-without-making-single-mortgage-payment
Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/a-million-dollar-mortgage-goes-unpaid-for-years-while-couple-fights-foreclosure/2012/03/01/gIQAb4DBpR_story_1.html

Saturday, March 3, 2012

There's No Way the US is Like Japan!

Experts say that there is no way that the US will follow the same path as Japan. One reason is that our demographics are different -- Japan is the world's oldest developed nation (and won't get better anytime soon), the US is much younger, and those young people are better GDP-producing citizens. Also, retired folks tend to not buy bigger houses or produce little future house-buyers.

Japan has faced two lost decades littered with deflation and massive de-leveraging following their housing bubble burst in the early '90s (that was when the Tokyo Imperial Palace grounds were worth more than the real estate of California). There are other reasons experts cite, and I'll raise those at a later date.

Here's a comparison of Japan's pre- and post-bubble price-action vs. the US (overlaid to show that there's no way the US and Japan are similar):


Here is a 10-year chart of some California cities from Zillow:


Hopefully you bought a house over 10 years ago, otherwise, you're probably underwater.

Don't forget to factor in inflation (hint: it doesn't make the outcome better, in fact, it makes it much worse):




Thursday, March 1, 2012

Keep Your Fingers Crossed That People Who Can and are Willing, Continue to be Willing, to Pay Their Mortgages

Don't look now, but chances are you or your neighbor owe more than your respective house is worth.


If you were smart, you would've stopped paying your mortgage, live in "your" house for 600 days, get foreclosed upon, then move out, and try and see if you qualify for your $2,000 from the $26B foreclosure settlement from 5 big banks and the government. Sorry, I meant $1,500 to $2,000. I guess we all can't be winners.

California stats on negative equity:
- 55% of occupied housing is owner-occupied (the rest is renter-occupied).
- Of those that own a house, 75% have a mortgage (much higher rate than nationwide data).
- 30% of the 5.1M owner-occupied homes are underwater.



Source: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-02-14/mortgage-servicers-agree-to-26-billion-foreclosure-settlement.html