Saturday, April 28, 2012

GDP Missed Even With Warm Weather in Q1

Q1 2012 GDP came in at +2.2% vs. an expected +2.5% (down from +3% in Q4 2011). This was a big miss because when talking about an economy that is $15 trillion, 0.3% equates to $45 billion.


It gets worse. The miss was disappointing because with a very warm Q1, demand was pulled-in from spring -- house shopping, people not missing work, shopping because they're not trapped in their houses, etc.


And it gets worse.  

Zero Hedge: 

...the change in US public debt ($359.1 billion) and US GDP ($142.4) in the first quarter, hit 2.52x and rising. It takes $2.52 in new debt to "buy" $1 of economic "growth."


WSJ:
The U.S. economy was lifted by one of the warmest winters on record in the first quarter. But that may mean a chill wind for growth in coming months.


The January-to-March quarter was the nation's warmest three-month start since at least 1895, with an average temperature of 42.01 degrees Fahrenheit—six degrees warmer than the long-term average, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.


Consumers went out shopping on days when the cold usually kept them in, construction projects continued with minimal delay and a dearth of snowstorms led to fewer missed work days. 

Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/big-gdp-miss-22-vs-expectations-25
Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304723304577369783480512416.html
Source: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-economy-gdp-20120428,0,6875433.story
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chart-day-change-q1-american-debt-and-gdp

Friday, April 27, 2012

Spain is Ok...

From Bloomberg:

Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos ruled out seeking a bailout hours before Standard & Poor’s cut the country’s credit rating to three levels above junk and a report showed unemployment jumped close to a record.
“Nobody has asked Spain, either officially or unofficially” to turn to Europe’s bailout mechanisms, he said in an interview in Madrid late yesterday. “We don’t need it.”

From Reuters:

Spain's unemployment rate shot up to 24 percent in the first quarter, the highest level since the early 1990s and one of the worst jobless figures in the world. Retail sales slumped for the twenty-first consecutive month.
Spain has slipped into its second recession in 3 years putting it back in the center of the Euro Zone debt crisis storm.

Official unemployment is at 24% (meaning that true unemployment is worse) and youth unemployment is at 52% (you know, the people that do the rioting). Austerity measures are putting more and more Spaniards out of work. I've never lived in Spain, but believe that when you're unemployed in Spain, you spend less than when you're employed. And when people spend less, businesses earn less and require less employees to work. You see where this is headed.


The US housing market crash devastated its economy. Ireland's housing market devastated its economy. Spain's housing market boom was bigger than both. It has yet to crash in all its glory. This is bad news for Spanish banks, which are connected to Eurozone banks, which are connected to US banks, which are all connected to the economies of their countries.


Spain doesn't need a bailout? Just wait.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-27/spain-not-under-pressure-to-seek-bank-bailout-de-guindos-says.html
Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47204596/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/#.T5uDG7POVLc
Source: http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/11/global-house-prices
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spanish-economy-crumbles-unemployment-nearly-25

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

How China Manipulates Its Currency

Despite what the Fed says, it certainly wants to weaken the US dollar. First, a weaker US dollar makes US-made stuff cheaper overseas, i.e. US exporters benefit. Second, it makes imports more expensive (think oil prices), which is not good for consumers, but makes domestically-made stuff more attractive.

China knows this. So what they do is peg their currency, the yuan, to the US dollar, and occasionally let it float before pegging it again.

Here's how they do it:


The voyage of a dollar (by Jim Fallows)

1) Let's say you buy an Oral-B electric toothbrush for $30 at a CVS in the United States. I choose this example because I've seen a factory in China that probably made the toothbrush. Most of that $30 stays in America, with CVS, the distributors, and Oral-B itself. Eventually $3 or so--an average percentage for small consumer goods--makes its way back to southern China.

2) When the factory originally placed its bid for Oral-B's business, it stated the price in dollars: X million toothbrushes for Y dollars each. But the Chinese manufacturer can't use the dollars directly. It needs RMB--to pay the workers their 1,200-RMB ($160) monthly salary, to buy supplies from other factories in China, to pay its taxes. So it takes the dollars to the local commercial bank--let's say the Shenzhen Development Bank. After showing receipts or waybills to prove that it earned the dollars in genuine trade, not as speculative inflow, the factory trades them for RMB.

3) This is where the first controls kick in. In other major countries, the counterparts to the Shenzhen Development Bank can decide for themselves what to do with the dollars they take in. Trade them for euros or yen on the foreign-exchange market? Invest them directly in America? Issue dollar loans? Whatever they think will bring the highest return. But under China's "surrender requirements," Chinese banks can't do those things. They must treat the dollars, in effect, as contraband, and turn most or all of them (instructions vary from time to time) over to China's equivalent of the Federal Reserve Bank, the People's Bank of China, for RMB at whatever is the official rate of exchange.
With thousands of transactions per day, the dollars pile up like crazy at the PBOC. More precisely, by more than a billion dollars per day. They pile up even faster than the trade surplus with America would indicate, because customers in many other countries settle their accounts in dollars, too.

4) The PBOC must do something with that money, and current Chinese doctrine allows it only one option: to give the dollars to another arm of the central government, the State Administration for Foreign Exchange. It is then SAFE's job to figure out where to park the dollars for the best return: so much in U.S. stocks, so much shifted to euros, and the great majority left in the boring safety of U.S. Treasury notes.

5) And thus our dollar comes back home. Spent at CVS, passed to Oral-B, paid to the factory in southern China, traded for RMB at the Shenzhen bank, "surrendered" to the PBOC, passed to SAFEfor investment, and then bid at auction for Treasury notes, it is ready to be reinjected into the U.S. money supply and spent again--ideally on Chinese-made goods. 



China keeping its currency weak leads to inflation problems at home for stuff they import:


Assuming you believe (I definitely do not) the official core (excludes food and energy) inflation rates, if the US didn't pile on debt (and electronically print its own money), inflation rates would be lower. Remember, these are annual rates that have a compounding effect.



What Spending Problem?

Raise taxes? Cut Spending? 


From the Congressional Budget Office: The United States is facing significant and fundamental budgetary challenges. The federal government's budget deficit for fiscal year 2011 was $1.3 trillion; at 8.7% of gross domestic product (GDP), that deficit was the third-largest shortfall in the past 40 years. (GDP is the sum of all income earned in the domestic production of goods and services. In 2011, it totaled $15.0 trillion.)

Ok, so Tax Revenues minus Spending equals $1.3 trillion. That sounds like a lot, doesn't it?


Thursday, April 19, 2012

Debt, Visualized


From http://demonocracy.info:

USA is the nation with most debt by far in the history of human civilization.

USA's total debt, including personal debt, real estate (mortgage) debt, consumer debt, credit card debt and government debt totals a mega $47,992 Billion USD ($47.9 trillion). Source: US Debt Clock

USA borrowed $1229 billion in 2011. USA runs a mega ~35% budget deficit, far above the 3% max limit set by EU for economic stability standard. With industrialized world economies in crisis, USA faces little problem to finance its budget deficit in 2012 since world's money is currently flowing into USA in great numbers as investors try to find "safety" where to store their money, since Europe is not safe; neither are banks. As long as USA has access to cheap credit due to scared investors willing to hand over their money in name of "safety", USA's interest payments will remain far below normal. As of Feb 2012, the debt numbers are following:




Source: http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/world_debt/world_debt.html

Saturday, April 14, 2012

We Need YOU to Buy Stocks Now!

Individual investors, known as Retail Investors, have been taking their money out of the stock market (via Mutual Funds) for the last two years. I guess being burned in the dot-com boom of the late '90s, the housing boom of the early '00s, and the stock market boom of the mid/late '00s have left a bitter taste in the mouths of investors.

What you should know though, is that YOUR help is needed now more than ever. Institutions and hedge funds (with massive help from the Federal Reserve) have driven this market up again since the March 2009 low and desperately need you to buy stocks hand-over-fist! After all, someone needs to take the stocks off their hands.

Media outlets have been doing their best to put positive spins on horrendous and disappointing (mediocre at best) data for the last few years. Failure to highlight the repercussions of massive money-printing, inflation's adverse impact on savers, stimulus spending encouraging the destruction of perfectly functioning cars and building highways to nowhere, spending money to suppress short- and long-term interest rates to entice people to buy into the American dream of home ownership (a familiar story), and on and on, is not accidental.

Alas, here is the Mutual Fund Flows charted against the ever-rising SPY (S&P 500 ETF):



Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/biggest-weekly-stock-outflow-2012-proves-retail-no-longer-dumb-money-and-nobody-listens-goldman

Safeway, the Company that Gave Birth to its Own Undoing

Financial Times:
- The hole in the pension plans of US labor unions now stands at $369 billion Credit Suisse has calculated with the aid of new reporting standards.
- Multi-employer pension schemes, managed by trade unions on behalf of members working for many different employers, are now just 52% funded.
- Credit Suisse's findings contrast with the approach used by the plans themselves whereby funding levels are calculated on an actuarial basis which smooths investment returns over several years and discounts the size of future payments to beneficiaries at an expected rate of investment returns of 7.5% annually.
- Critics argue that this produces an overly optimistic view of assets and liabilities: on this actuarial basis multi-employer plans are 81% funded, a gap of only $101 billion. Safeway last week said that its liability was $1.88 billion “on the basis established by the Pension Protection Act of 2006”. Credit Suisse estimates that a fair value for the liability is $7 billion, more than the company’s market capitalization.

Canned Goods:
- What can possibly go wrong with accounting methodology currently used, and avocated by, large corporations?
- What's wrong with using an assumed 7.5% annual return on your investments into perpetuity?
- Note to Safeway union members (truck drivers, store workers, etc.): retire now and get as much as you can before this blows up!



Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/union-pension-underfunding-time-bomb-soars-75-one-year-nears-400-billion
Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/union-reaches-deal-with-safeway-and-giant/2012/03/29/gIQAhQjtjS_story.html
Source: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/45dbbafe-7838-11e1-bffc-00144feab49a.html#axzz1rXaDmFNf

He Who Retires First, Wins

CalSTRS:
- The latest valuation shows a funding status sufficient to cover 69 percent of projected liabilities, leaving the fund with a $64.5 billion funding shortfall.
- The funding status means that for every dollar in pension obligations the fund has 69 cents worth of assets available.
- The previous valuation showed the funding shortfall at $56 billion.

Zero Hedge:
- CalSTRS reduced "the assumed rate of investment returns from 7.75 percent to 7.5 percent.

Canned Goods:
- First of all, planning on annual returns of 7% is incredibly optimistic irresponsible.
- I don't know about you, but if I was a retired teacher, I'd be upset that I might not get my defined BENEFIT from the ponzi scheme fund and that the younger workers should just contribute more so that I can live comfortably.
- If I was a current working teacher paying into the fund, with a defined BENEFIT plan, I'd retire ASAP to become an upset retiree unhappy that I might not live comfortably in retirement and that current teachers should pay more to support me.
- If I was a current teacher paying into the fund with retirement in the distant future, I'd be upset at the older folks expecting me to pay more to support their longer-than-expected lives and higher-than-expected medical bills.
- If you're not in the California State Teachers' Retirement System, don't worry, there's something call Social Security that is in even worse shape than what this article is talking about!

About CalSTRS:
- The California State Teachers' Retirement System, with a portfolio valued at $152 billion as of February 29, 2012, is the largest teacher pension fund and second largest public pension fund in the United States.
- CalSTRS administers a hybrid retirement system, consisting of traditional defined benefit, cash balance and defined contribution plans, as well as disability and survivor benefits.
- CalSTRS serves California's 856,000 public school educators and their families from the state's 1,600 school districts, county offices of education and community college districts.

See also: http://stockuponcannedgoods.blogspot.com/2012/02/note-to-california-public-employees.html

Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/largest-teacher-pension-fund-underfunding-increases-9-billion-645-billion-only-69-funded
Source: http://www.calstrs.com/Newsroom/whats_new/2011_actuarial_valuation.aspx

New Canary in the Coal Mine: Spain

Insurance (Credit Default Swaps) on Spain defaulting on its bonds is near its record set in back in November 2011. Translation: bad, bad news for those who thought the European debt crisis was solved.

Here's why the market is concerned (and you should be too):

(1) It is now a fact that bond traders need to pay more for insurance against the Spanish government defaulting against its bonds (e.g. the premium for tornado insurance spikes when the tornado insurance provider not only knows that it's tornado season, but it knows that a tornado is headed for your house);

(2) Spain is the 12th largest economy in the world at $1.4 trillion (GDP) vs. Greece, the 32nd largest, at $305 billion (GDP) so Spain is following in Greece's path, except that Spain is over 4 times bigger; and

(3) the European Central Banks's LTRO 1 and 2 (long-term refinancing options) were basically the ECB lending government banks a trillion Euros (both 1 and 2 combined) at 1% annual interest rates for 3 years in hopes each country's banks would buy their own government's bonds at higher interest rates (benefiting from a carry trade of borrowing money at low interest rates and investing in higher interest paying investments), which indicates that the LTROs are NOT working.

CDS according to Wikipedia: A credit default swap (CDS) is a financial swap agreement that the seller of the CDS will compensate the buyer in the event of a loan default or other credit event.


Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_default_swap
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spain-cds-track-record-close

Spending Cuts Visualized

Spending cuts relative to the size of mandatory (e.g. Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid) and discretionary spending in the US Budget:


See also: http://stockuponcannedgoods.blogspot.com/2012/02/dear-suze-orman.html

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5yxFtTwDcc

Are We There Yet?

Here's some perspective on the borrowings of the US Government.

All is well...

\

Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5yxFtTwDcc

A Perfect Analogy of How We Bail Out Banks, Bankers, and Financial Institutions

From the Washington Post: Fix income inequality with $10 million loans for everyone!

For several years now, the Fed has been making money available to the financial sector at near-zero interest rates. Big banks and hedge funds, among others, have taken this cheap money and invested it in securities with high yields. This type of profit-making, called the “carry trade,” has been enormously profitable for them.

So why not let everyone participate?

Under my plan, each American household could borrow $10 million from the Fed at zero interest. The more conservative among us can take that money and buy 10-year Treasury bonds. At the current 2 percent annual interest rate, we can pocket a nice $200,000 a year to live on. The more adventuresome can buy 10-year Greek debt at 21 percent, for an annual income of $2.1 million. Or if Greece is a little too risky for you, go with Portugal, at about 12 percent, or $1.2 million dollars a year. (No sense in getting greedy.)

Think of what we can do with all that money. We can pay off our underwater mortgages and replenish our retirement accounts without spending one day schlepping into the office. With a few quick keystrokes, we’ll be golden for the next 10 years.

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/fix-income-inequality-with-10-million-loans-for-everyone/2012/04/13/gIQATUQAFT_story.html

Sunday, April 8, 2012

Ghost Towns of China

China has pumped a lot of stimulus into its infrastructure and housing markets. They make the US and European Central Bank look like amateurs.


So, China's government loaned a bunch of money to developers and investors to build cities. And build they did. Unfortunately, the housing units are way too expensive for the average person (i.e. they will never, ever, be able to afford them) leading to relatively few purchases, and in some cases, no purchases. This has been going on for the past few years.

At least China's willingness to abuse its people by suppressing wages, civil liberties (don't worry, the US government will put China to shame with the NSA's Utah Data Center), manipulating its currency (the US also puts the world to shame on this front), completely ignoring the collateral environmental damage, inviting Westerners to take advantage of the low-cost of manufacturing (at the expense of its people), subsidizing industries (e.g. solar and rare earth minerals) to bankrupt cross-border competitors, and its sole focus on GDP growth has catapulted into the world's second largest economy.

Can you guess how it will end? Hint: Not well.




A Fat, Aging, Indebted-to-Our-Eyeballs Country, with a Horrific Future

From Zero Hedge:

- We are accumulating debt at a rate of $3.7 billion per day, or $154 million per hour.
- The National Debt is on track to surpass $20 trillion in 2015 and $25 trillion by 2018. And this is before the Medicare and Social Security costs blast into orbit in 2020. Kicking the can down the road works until math catches up with you. It is insane to believe we can dig ourselves out of this debt induced mess with more debt, but empires tend to act insanely in their death throes.
- Strauss and Howe: The Boomers’ old age will loom, exposing the thinness in private savings and the unsustainability of public promises. The 13ers (generation after the Boomers) will reach their make or break peak earning years, realizing at last that they can’t all be lucky exceptions to their stagnating average income. Millenials will come of age facing debts, tax burdens, and two tier wage structures that older generations will now declare intolerable.
- Thus far the older generations have refused to yield. They demand promises made be promises kept. The Boomers did not save enough to sustain themselves during their retirement. Many are entirely reliant upon Social Security and Medicare as their only savings and health insurance. Generation X is caught between aging parents and indebted jobless children. The Millenials are saddled with $1 trillion of student loan debt and few decent job opportunities.

I don't see anything wrong with this chart, do you?:


Maybe being in your seventies these days are like being in your forties decades ago? Seriously though, people are living much longer these days, therefore, they don't get sick? Or they get sick, but for shorter periods?:

We are one fat country. More than one-third of U.S. adults (35.7%) are obese. Approximately 17% (or 12.5 million) of children and adolescents aged 2-19 years are obese.

CDC's Obesity by State:





Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Sovereign Debts of the World

Central banks Assets indexed to 100 on Dec. 31, 2006. Band of England and the US Fed are up over 3x while the European Central Bank is up over 2x. Japan looks good though!


This chart shows central bank assets as a % of nominal GDP, Japan and the US bank assets represent over 25% of GDP (not good). Japan no longer looks good. Recent actions from the ECB make Bernanke look like an amateur at money printing.



Central bank assets in US dollars. China is the clear winner here. Don't forget though, the US is the largest economy of the world (~$15 trillion GDP per year) and China in second (~$6 trillion). I guess we'll soon see the unintended consequences of all that currency pegging and mega-sized stimulus in China (don't worry China, the rest of the world isn't safe either).


Here's a chart of everyone piled on top of each other. That's the beauty of technology, none of us have to even truly print money, they're just electronic entries in computers.



Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/ecb-vs-fed-vs-boj-vs-pboc-money-printing-2012-3
Source: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/01/chart-of-day-central-bank-balance-sheet.html
Source: http://kostasgeorgioy.blogspot.com/2011/12/central-bank-balance-sheets-ecb-fed-boj.html
Source: http://payden.com/pdf/econview02222012.pdf

Remember that Stimulus Plan, Cash for Clunkers?

Nothing better than knowing that taxpayers got to pay for $3 billion programs like Cash for Clunkers.

The program was promoted as providing stimulus to the economy by boosting auto sales, while putting safer, cleaner and more fuel-efficient vehicles on the roadways.

Wikipedia: A study published after the program by researchers at the University of Delaware concluded that for each vehicle trade, the program had a net cost of approximately $2,000, with total costs outweighing all benefits by $1.4 billion. Another study by researchers at the University of Michigan found that the program improved the average fuel economy of all vehicles purchased by 0.6 mpg in July 2009 and by 0.7 mpg in August 2009.



Want more?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQy8Gi403RY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiORhKnwXF4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RATW0-Oy3OY

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_Allowance_Rebate_System
Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iD0Pv6yyGek