According to common knowledge as well as some Ph.D. from some place called the Stanford Institue for Economic Policy Research, there will be a funding shortfall for three public employee pension systems: the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS), California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS), and the University of California Retirement Plan (UCRP).
- The combined unfunded liability for CalPERS, CalSTRS, and UCRP assuming a 6.2% rate of return on their investments (note: in 2011 the S&P 500 was up 0.1%) is $290 billion, equal to more than three state General Fund budgets.
- Using a low-risk, or risk-free, discount rate, the combined unfunded liability for these three systems reaches $497 billion.
- The probability of CalPERS assets falling short of obligations is 82 percent; i.e., there is only an 18 percent chance of assets exceeding liabilities over a 16-year forecast period.
Side Bar: I ordered a pizza on Monday. I got the pizza and paid $15 to the delivery guy named CalSTRS. It was a decent pizza, it wasn't hot, but wasn't cold either. On Tuesday, CalSTRS came back and demanded another $15. I asked "why? I didn't order a pizza today." He said that one, I wasn't getting a pizza today and two, it was for the pizza he gave me yesterday. I'm never ordering from CalSTRS or his company again. But I still have to pay him $15 a day until he dies...
Source: http://siepr.stanford.edu/system/files/shared/Nation%20Statewide%20Report%20v081.pdf
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