Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Kyle Bass on the World

Oct. 1, 2012 | Day 1 | AmerCatalyst 2012 | The Engtanglement : Session 1.2 | The World is Not Enough: Keynote presentation by J. Kyle Bass


Click here to watch the video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUc8-GUC1hY&feature=youtu.be

Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-19/hour-company-kyle-bass

Thursday, December 13, 2012

Overview of the US Economy


Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-13/explaining-us-economy-star-wars
Source: http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2012/12/12/explaining-the-u-s-economy-via-star-wars-wow-this-is-good/

Hypocrite of the Year: Warren Buffett

Here's what Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway just did: (1) He spouts B.S. all day long about raising taxes on the wealthy when he was one of the biggest beneficiaries of US Govt bailouts (how about we give taxpayers their money back instead of allowing him to hugely profit from bailouts that I'm willing to bet he knew would occur beforehand?); (2) for decades he spouts B.S. about the evils of stock buybacks then begins to buyback Berkshire shares in late 2011; (3) instead of buying the shares on the open market, he goes to a longtime shareholder who I presume is trying to avoid tax increases that may happen in less than a month and makes a deal but not before, (4) changing Berkshire's policy on stock buybacks (the original policy prevented this buyback given Berkshire's share price) in order to make the deal happen.

Dec 12 (Reuters) - Warren Buffett's $1.2 billion share buyback from a single unnamed investor likely helped that person's estate save substantially on taxes, just one day after the Berkshire Hathaway CEO said the rich should actually be paying more, not less, when they die.

Berkshire also said Wednesday it raised the threshold for future share buybacks to 120 percent of book value from 110 percent, the level it chose when it first approved a repurchase program in September 2011. The higher level allowed Berkshire to complete this latest buyback, which was above the old threshold.

Dec 12 (Forbes) - With several firms scrambling to return money to shareholders ahead of the fiscal cliff, it was Warren Buffett who surprised many on Wednesday, as Berkshire bought back $1.2 billion in Berkshire stock from a single shareholder.

The company noted it bought 9,200 Class A shares at $131,000 each “from the estate of a long-time shareholder.”

Interestingly, Buffett had been historically opposed to repurchases, shunning them for four decades, according to Bloomberg, but the Oracle changed his mind in 2011.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/12/berkshire-buyback-idUSL1E8NCITK20121212
Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2012/12/12/warren-buffetts-berkshire-buys-back-1-2b-in-stock-from-single-sharheolder/


Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Private vs. Government Workers

Gary Alexander, Secretary of Public Welfare, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania:

- For every 1.65 employed persons in the private sector, 1 person receives welfare assistance
- For every 1.25 employed persons in the private sector, 1 person receives welfare assistance or works for the government.


From Gary Alexander, Secretary of Public Welfare, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (a state best known for its broke capital Harrisburg). As quantified, and explained by Alexander, "the single mom is better off earnings gross income of $29,000 with $57,327 in net income & benefits than to earn gross income of $69,000 with net income and benefits of $57,045."



Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-27/americas-lost-decade-one-simple-chart
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-27/when-work-punished-tragedy-americas-welfare-state

Our Dear Friend China

What everyone thinks: China will always buy US Treasuries. It helps to fund the US so it can continue to spend recklessly and have Americans buy more crap from China.

What everyone should know: China reduced its holdings in Dec. 2011 and since then, has only been recycling its holdings. This means that the US needs more external buyers (Japan, UK, other country) or the Fed will have to buy our debt (say, 60%-75% -- FYI, this is money printing in the 20th century).


Now where could China be spending its surplus?


Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-17/china-persists-refusing-buy-us-paper-foreign-ltm-purchases-treasurys-plunge-three-ye

Fed to English Translation Cheat Sheet

Quick cheat sheet for Fed-speak:


Source: http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/115261249?access_key=key-oxvngtudgie6dtgtt6b
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-03/lighthouse-investment-n-word-monetary-policy


Debt Doesn't Matter ... Until It Does (and It's Too Late)

Hint: It's already too late. Brace for impact...





Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-06/visualizing-us-debt
Source: http://demonocracy.info/
Source: http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Source: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GFDEBTN/
 

Not Sure Where We Go From Here, But This is Where It Ends

Gordon Long:

There are five distinct stages in the life cycle of sovereign nations. These life cycle stages map to generational cycles and to Long Cycles such as the Kondratieff Cycle. Since these cycles are fundamentally behavioral shifts, they consequentially take the nations economic and political process with it.

STAGE V
After bubbles burst and when deleveraging occur, private debt growth, private sector spending, asset values and net worth decline in a self-reinforcing negative cycle. To compensate, government debt growth, government deficits and central bank “printing” of money typically increase. In this way, their central banks and central governments cut real interest rates and increase nominal GDP growth so that it is comfortably above nominal interest rates in order to ease debt burdens. As a result of these low real interest rates, weak currencies and poor economic conditions, their debt and equity assets are poor performing and increasingly these countries have to compete with less expensive countries that are in the earlier stages of development. Their currencies depreciate and they like it! As an extension of these economic and financial trends, countries in this stage see their power in the world decline.

ACCEPTING STAGE V
Success breeds complacency and complacency breeds leverage. Fiat currency enables a late stage country to delay the realization that it is no longer rich, but not avoid it.  The developed and emerging nations are in obviously different positions and consequentially their behavioral traits and priorities are different. Accepting the realities of Stage V is still to come for the developed world, and when it does it will be sudden and shocking to most people -- and to the financial markets.





Source: www.GordonTLong.com
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-11/guest-post-ungovernable-democracy