Saturday, April 28, 2012

GDP Missed Even With Warm Weather in Q1

Q1 2012 GDP came in at +2.2% vs. an expected +2.5% (down from +3% in Q4 2011). This was a big miss because when talking about an economy that is $15 trillion, 0.3% equates to $45 billion.


It gets worse. The miss was disappointing because with a very warm Q1, demand was pulled-in from spring -- house shopping, people not missing work, shopping because they're not trapped in their houses, etc.


And it gets worse.  

Zero Hedge: 

...the change in US public debt ($359.1 billion) and US GDP ($142.4) in the first quarter, hit 2.52x and rising. It takes $2.52 in new debt to "buy" $1 of economic "growth."


WSJ:
The U.S. economy was lifted by one of the warmest winters on record in the first quarter. But that may mean a chill wind for growth in coming months.


The January-to-March quarter was the nation's warmest three-month start since at least 1895, with an average temperature of 42.01 degrees Fahrenheit—six degrees warmer than the long-term average, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.


Consumers went out shopping on days when the cold usually kept them in, construction projects continued with minimal delay and a dearth of snowstorms led to fewer missed work days. 

Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/big-gdp-miss-22-vs-expectations-25
Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304723304577369783480512416.html
Source: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-economy-gdp-20120428,0,6875433.story
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chart-day-change-q1-american-debt-and-gdp

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