10-Year Treasury Yields

What will happen in the next 10 years? Lower bond yields (higher bond prices)? Probably not.


- The US 10 year Treasury yields fell to a 220 year low of 1.45% in June 2012.
- US bonds have had the following distinct secular bull and bear markets:
- 1790-1902: erratic yield fluctuations and then a sustained decline in yields to below 3%.
- 1902-1920: the First Bear Bond Market, yields rise from 3% to 5-6%.
- 1920-1946: the Great Bull Bond Market, yields decline from 5-6% to below 2%.
- 1946-1981: the Second Bear Bond Market, yields soar from 2% to above 15% during 1981.
- 1981-today: the Greatest Bull Bond Market, as yields tumble from 15% to 1.5% today.

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, June 2012.