Sunday, September 30, 2012

Got Hunger?

Ever get hungry but couldn't afford to buy food? I don't mean hungry for the week and eventually sate your appetite. I mean hungry for a long enough time that you pick up a pitchfork and head down to the local government office. Me neither.

But apparently a lot of people in the world got to that point and it didn't work out so well for their governments. Hopefully you have a job that provides you with a lot of discretionary income and rises equally fast as "headline" inflation (the one that the media never quotes but instead uses "core", which excludes food and energy).

Sovereign Man blog: ... whenever the UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO)'s global food price index climbs above 210, conditions ripen for social unrest.

There are so many factors driving food prices higher. From a demand perspective, world population is growing at an extraordinary rate... plus the rise of billions of people from developing countries (especially in Asia) into the middle class is quickening demand for resource-intensive foods like beef.

From a supply perspective, drought, soil erosion, and reduction of available farmland all put significant pressure on global agricultural output. And finally, from a monetary perspective, the enormous amount of paper currency being printed in the world is finding its way into agricultural commodities.


Here's a longer time horizon:


The yellow line is the "real" price (excludes years of inflation) and the orange line is the "nominal" price (the price that you pay because of inflation. Where are the scapegoat speculators when we need them?


Here are the government's gamed/manipulated inflation rates (the true rates are much higher):


Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-27/guest-post-two-no-brainer-ways-play-rising-food-prices
Source: http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/foodpricesindex/en/
Source: http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/CPI-Headline-and-Core.php

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